Table of content – Excel Forecasting Models for Business, Finance and IT
Introduction
1.1 Excel basics
1.2 Elementary statistical tools
1.3 The role of error measurement
1.4 Data inspection and preparation
2. Forecasting rationale and basic ideas
1.1 Excel basics
2.1 Relationship between forecasting, planning and decision-making
2.2 Forecasting methods classification
2.3 Forecasting horizon
3. Understanding Basic Techniques
3.1 Averaging
3.2 Differencing
3.3 Transformations
3.4 Smoothing
4.Association between and within the time series
4.1 Correlation
4.2 Autocorrelation
4.3 Partial Autocorrelation
5. Fitting underlying trend and regression
5.1 Visualisation
5.2 Time series classification
5.3 Curve classification
5.4 Recognising curves
5.5 Fitting curves and extrapolating
5.6 Simple Regression
5.7 Inspecting Errors in Regression Analysis
6. Stationary models
6.1 Simple averaging techniques
6.2 Exponential Smoothing
7. Non-Stationary models
7.1 Double moving averages (DMA)
7.2 Double exponential smoothing (DES)
7.3 Triple exponential smoothing (TES)
7.4 Holt’s Double exponential smoothing method
8. Seasonal models
8.1. Classical decomposition method
8.2 Seasonal adjustments and exponential smoothing
8.3 Simple seasonal exponential smoothing
8.4 Holt-Winters seasonal method
9. Stochastic Models (This chapter will have to be completely rewritten as NAG no longer supports this Add-in)
9.1 Types of models
9.2 Model identification
9.3 Box Jenkins approach to ARIMA Modeling
9.4 Model fitting and forecasting
9.5 Model building
9.6 Diagnostic checking
9.7 Seasonal models
9.8 Applying the Box-Jenkins method using the NAG Add-in
9.9 Some ARIMA Examples
10. Forecasting process
10.1 Error measurements
10.2 Forecast selection
10.3 Monitoring forecasts (CUSUM)
11. Forecasting in a broader enterprise context
11.1 Forecasting and ICT
11.2 Forecasting in the supply chain
12. Advanced forecasting topics
12.1 Frequency domain analysis
12.2 State space models and Kalman filtering
12.3 Artificial Neural Networks
12.4 Fuzzy logic
12.5 Chaos theories
12.6 Economic time series analysis
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